Re: John's chart tabulations


John J. Hlavaty ([email protected])
Mon, 30 Nov 1998 14:57:50 -0500


nian fiedler ([email protected]) wrote:
> I also wanted to let you know that although you estimated the sales
> for the Best of + B-sides to be ~50,000, I think someone reported on
> wire on Thursday or Friday that it was ~89,000. I don't really feel
> like going back and looking for it, but I'm pretty sure this is
> correct. I am sure this is because of (so-called) "super Tuesday"
> where such stellar (and god-awful)artists such as Garth Brooks and
> Mariah Carey showcase how you can never underestimate the musical
> taste of Americans! With their high debuts, U2 slid way down even
> though the sales remained fairly strong.
>
> I don't know if this person also included the single disc version
> numbers, but I think so. Just to let you know so you can go back and
> look for it if you want.

Since I personally didn't come across any "real" numbers (from
BillBoard or other sources) I used an estimate based on my
past experiences (albums around #20 on the U.S. BillBoard
charts usually sell 50,000 or more copies while albums around #50
usually sell 20,000 or more copies).

It's nice to know that my estimate was on the low side. When I did
estimates for "POP", people felt I was often on the high
end. If the "Best Of + B-Sides" sold close to 90,000 copies
yet was #21, then the "Best Of" without the b-side disk may
have sold close to 50,000 copies (at #45). In this case, the
combined sales for the "Best Of" are well over 500,000 copies
(~460,000 + ~80,000). This sales rate is still a bit slower than
"POP", but I have a feeling that the "Best Of" will linger
on the charts longer (plus "POP" was boosted by very strong
first week sales).

The "Super Tuesday" you mentioned resulted from the fact that
SoundScan changed how they receive data from stores. While I
didn't read any specifics, apparently the figures they obtain now
are much more reliable (although ultimately they still
are estimated projections of sales for the whole country).
As a result of this new methodology, almost all the artists
in the top 50 saw a boost in their sales.

That said, Mariah Carey's "#1's" only sold 221,000 copies
its first week using this "new system" while U2's "Best Of"
sold 237,000 copies with the "old system". Make
of that what you will.

During the week, a WIRE member posted a note from a reviewer
complaining about Island's "marketing trick" (i.e., using the limited
b-side disk to boost sales). He stated that over a million units
were shipped (I am assuming a million just to the U.S.). He
also stated that "U2 will not sell a million copies in a week - at
least not at this point in their career". To be picky, almost
NO artist sells a million copies in a week. Garth Brooks just did,
but that was due to two things - a change in SoundScan's data
collection process (SoundScan admitted that had they used their old
method Brooks' sales would have been lower) and a HUGE marketing
push by WalMart. Pearl Jam came close with 950,000 copies of "Vs."
sold during its first week. However, the total sales for that album,
while still very strong, were down considerably from "10". Alanis
"only" sold 450,000 copies of her much anticipated follow-up to
"Jagged Little Pill" (which sold over 16 million in the U.S.).
"Achtung Baby", which sold 8 million in the U.S. "only" sold 295,000
copies its first week.

U2's "Best Of" had the best first week's sales of any greatest hits
album in the U.S. for any group (not of any artist though). This comment
of U2 selling a million copies of an album in the U.S. is unrealistic.
Few artists ever reach that milestone and I doubt U2 ever had an album
sell that quickly. Plus, this is old material which won't sell as
well as a new release.

The trouble with charts is that a LOT of emphasis is placed
on the first few weeks. There have been quite a few movies
and albums that had decent first weeks, but not spectacular
ones. However, sometimes those same movies and albums will
linger near the top for a while. It's the long-term results
that are important. This is what is truly important. "POP"
started off very strong, but spent a scant 3 weeks in the
top 10 and only 11 weeks in the top 20. After that, it
plummeted down the charts and was out of the top 200 after
a mere 6 months. If the "Best Of" lingers in the top 50 for
a while, this will show its staying power and popularity more
than the first few weeks of sales.

The "Best Of + B-Sides" will probably reach GOLD status by next week.
And as it descends on the charts due to its limited availability,
the "Best Of" will probably continue to rise. So watch for
its performance in the weeks to come.

One more note - Billboard's charts not only reflected a change
in SoundScan's data retrieval, but Billboard's Hot 100 songs
are now based on airplay not on airplay and sales. Consequently,
this may reflect a change in future charts and make comparisons
between past and present charts difficult. For example,
"Mysterious Ways" only reached #9 on the Hot 100. However,
it spent 12 weeks at #1 on the Modern Rock Charts and 9 weeks
at #1 on the Mainstream Rock Charts. Based on airplay alone, one
might anticipate "Mysterious Ways" doing better on the Hot 100.

I checked to see of "The Sweetest Thing" made it to the top
50 on the Hot 100, but it did not. Still, it's just shy
of the top 10 on the Modern Rock Charts which is very good
for a song not officially released as a CD single in the U.S.

Ciao,

John



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